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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
1
5
0
0
0
0
2
7
7
16
3
10
8
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
1
5
8
13
14
35
2
7
7
16
11
23
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
14
5
24
0
0
0
0
10
33
33
76
14
48
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
2
9
14
23
25
63
4
13
13
29
20
41
39
100

hitrate: 0.381 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 1.52 0.73
Heidke skill score: 0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.084 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.093 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.412
threat score:
0.067 0.289 0.226
equitable threat score:
0.045 0.000 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.001 -0.045 0.029
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.875
probability of detection:
0.091 0.565 0.318
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.562
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.629 0.562
samples: 21 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00