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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
0
0
1
1
2
4
2
8
4
6
3
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
19
12
13
44
2
4
2
8
23
18
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
15
0
31
0
0
8
8
15
31
15
62
31
46
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
0
7
34
21
23
79
4
7
4
14
41
32
27
100

hitrate: 0.308 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.17 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 2.44 0.53
Heidke skill score: -0.038 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.049 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: -0.038 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.056 true Kuipers skill score: -0.052
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.222
threat score:
0.080 0.240 0.095
equitable threat score:
0.161 -0.071 0.022
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.060 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.087 0.667 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.727 0.750
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00