CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
5
2
4
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
21
14
13
48
1
2
2
5
23
18
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
22
0
33
0
0
11
11
11
22
22
56
22
44
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
5
38
25
23
86
2
4
4
9
41
32
27
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.25 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 2.67 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.036 true Heidke skill score: -0.026
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.038 true Kuipers skill score: -0.027
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.040 0.269 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.100 -0.098 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.039 0.040
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.043 0.778 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.708 0.600
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00