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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
2
3
1
2
0
3
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
21
16
15
52
1
2
0
3
23
18
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
0
14
0
14
29
43
14
29
0
43
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
38
29
27
93
2
4
0
5
41
32
27
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 2.89 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.094 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.094 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.500 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.043 0.296 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.417 -0.077 -0.207
equitable threat score:
0.026 -0.019 -0.047
probability of detection:
0.500 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.043 0.889 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.692 1.000
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00