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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
3
6
10
2
3
6
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
12
17
46
1
3
6
10
18
15
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
9
9
27
55
91
18
27
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
21
30
82
2
5
11
18
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.07 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.052 true Heidke skill score: 0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.042 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.245 0.222
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.073 0.120
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.009 0.083
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.261
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.739 0.400
samples: 11 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 19.64 %coverage: 100.00