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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
3
3
7
1
4
3
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
17
11
20
48
1
3
3
7
18
15
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
0
13
0
0
0
0
13
38
38
88
13
50
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
30
20
36
86
2
5
5
13
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 3.20 0.30
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: 0.053 true Kuipers skill score: -0.056
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.212 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.067 0.000 0.086
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.047 0.005
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.733 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.771 0.571
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00