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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
1
1
1
3
0
7
12
19
3
9
14
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
11
5
17
33
0
7
12
19
13
13
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
4
4
15
4
4
4
12
0
27
46
73
12
35
54
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
2
7
20
9
30
59
0
13
21
34
23
23
54
100

hitrate: 0.577 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.33 1.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 2.54 0.63
Heidke skill score: 0.365 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.229 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: 0.365 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.218 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.400 0.091 0.571
threat score:
0.133 0.122 0.324
equitable threat score:
0.339 -0.004 0.164
equitable threat score:
0.076 -0.080 0.068
probability of detection:
0.667 0.111 0.857
probability of detection:
0.154 0.385 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.848 0.368
samples: 26 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 46.43 %coverage: 100.00