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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
6
13
19
1
7
13
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
12
7
17
36
0
6
13
19
13
13
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
0
5
0
5
0
29
62
90
5
33
62
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
21
13
30
64
0
11
23
34
23
23
54
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.14 1.46
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.77 0.63
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.323 true Heidke skill score: 0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.270 true Kuipers skill score: 0.066
threat score:
1.000 0.143 0.684
threat score:
0.077 0.167 0.361
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.100 0.171
equitable threat score:
0.060 -0.040 0.109
probability of detection:
1.000 0.143 1.000
probability of detection:
0.077 0.538 0.433
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.316
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.806 0.316
samples: 21 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00