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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
6
13
19
0
7
13
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
7
17
37
0
6
13
19
13
13
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
5
0
30
65
95
0
35
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
13
30
66
0
11
23
34
23
23
54
100

hitrate: 0.700 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.14 1.46
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.85 0.63
Heidke skill score: 0.550 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.178 true Heidke skill score: 0.033
Kuipers skill score: 0.550 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.143 true Kuipers skill score: 0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.684
threat score:
0.000 0.163 0.361
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.098 0.098
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.046 0.109
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.538 0.433
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.316
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.811 0.316
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00