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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
5
10
15
0
5
11
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
8
20
41
0
5
10
15
13
13
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
0
31
63
94
0
31
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
14
36
73
0
9
18
27
23
23
54
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.20 1.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.15 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: -0.116 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: -0.091 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.625
threat score:
0.000 0.174 0.286
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.055 -0.055
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.042 0.073
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.909
probability of detection:
0.000 0.615 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.805 0.333
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00