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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
1
2
5
8
0
5
17
22
1
9
23
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
3
13
16
32
0
5
17
22
3
20
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
3
9
3
6
15
24
0
15
52
67
3
27
70
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
5
5
23
28
56
0
9
30
39
5
35
60
100

hitrate: 0.576 hitrate: 0.526
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.89 0.96
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.60 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.364 Heidke skill score: 0.289
true Heidke skill score: 0.091 true Heidke skill score: 0.169
Kuipers skill score: 0.364 Kuipers skill score: 0.289
true Kuipers skill score: 0.096 true Kuipers skill score: 0.186
threat score:
0.000 0.133 0.607
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.436
equitable threat score:
-0.023 -0.014 0.132
equitable threat score:
-0.027 0.064 0.150
probability of detection:
0.000 0.222 0.739
probability of detection:
0.000 0.650 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.594 0.227
samples: 33 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 57.89 %coverage: 100.00