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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
1
4
5
0
6
16
22
0
7
21
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
3
14
17
34
0
6
16
22
3
20
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
0
4
14
18
0
21
57
79
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
5
25
30
60
0
11
28
39
5
35
60
100

hitrate: 0.607 hitrate: 0.526
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.71 1.05
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.70 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.411 Heidke skill score: 0.289
true Heidke skill score: -0.073 true Heidke skill score: 0.153
Kuipers skill score: 0.411 Kuipers skill score: 0.289
true Kuipers skill score: -0.071 true Kuipers skill score: 0.166
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.593
threat score:
0.000 0.350 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.026 -0.048
equitable threat score:
-0.013 0.074 0.107
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 0.762
probability of detection:
0.000 0.700 0.471
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.800 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.588 0.273
samples: 28 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 49.12 %coverage: 100.00