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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
2
2
0
4
12
16
0
4
15
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
3
16
21
40
0
4
12
16
3
20
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
0
0
11
11
0
21
63
84
0
21
79
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
5
28
37
70
0
7
21
28
5
35
60
100

hitrate: 0.632 hitrate: 0.491
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 1.07
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.00 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.447 Heidke skill score: 0.237
true Heidke skill score: -0.177 true Heidke skill score: 0.131
Kuipers skill score: 0.447 Kuipers skill score: 0.237
true Kuipers skill score: -0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.148
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.632
threat score:
0.000 0.364 0.316
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.075 -0.099
equitable threat score:
-0.013 0.066 0.086
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.600 0.250
samples: 19 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00