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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
4
13
17
0
5
14
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
16
21
40
0
4
13
17
3
20
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
11
0
21
68
89
0
26
74
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
28
37
70
0
7
23
30
5
35
60
100

hitrate: 0.737 hitrate: 0.509
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.40 1.21
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.605 Heidke skill score: 0.263
true Heidke skill score: 0.159 true Heidke skill score: 0.147
Kuipers skill score: 0.605 Kuipers skill score: 0.263
true Kuipers skill score: 0.129 true Kuipers skill score: 0.163
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.722
threat score:
0.000 0.364 0.342
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.087 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.066 0.103
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.929
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.382
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.235
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.235
samples: 19 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00