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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
3
7
10
0
4
7
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
17
27
47
0
3
7
10
3
20
34
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
9
0
9
0
27
64
91
0
36
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
30
47
82
0
5
12
18
5
35
60
100

hitrate: 0.727 hitrate: 0.421
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.25 1.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.35 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.591 Heidke skill score: 0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.298 true Heidke skill score: 0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.591 Kuipers skill score: 0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.700
threat score:
0.000 0.340 0.189
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.175 0.175
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.015 0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.850 0.206
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.300
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.638 0.300
samples: 11 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 19.30 %coverage: 100.00