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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
5
10
15
0
6
10
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
14
25
41
0
5
10
15
2
19
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
6
0
6
0
31
63
94
0
38
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
25
45
73
0
9
18
27
4
34
63
100

hitrate: 0.688 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.17 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.16 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.531 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.531 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.026
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.304 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.111 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 0.020
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.737 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.659 0.333
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00