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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
6
0
1
5
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
18
30
50
0
1
5
6
2
19
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
83
100
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
32
54
89
0
2
9
11
4
34
63
100

hitrate: 0.833 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.63 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.750 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.065
Kuipers skill score: 0.750 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.833
threat score:
0.000 0.353 0.139
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.030 0.039
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.947 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.640 0.167
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00