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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
0
5
10
15
0
7
10
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
14
25
41
0
5
10
15
2
19
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
12
0
29
59
88
0
41
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
25
45
73
0
9
18
27
4
34
63
100

hitrate: 0.706 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.29 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.16 0.43
Heidke skill score: 0.559 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.320 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.559 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.286 true Kuipers skill score: 0.026
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.304 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.190 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 0.020
probability of detection:
0.000 0.286 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.737 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.659 0.333
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00