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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199509-199511

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
1
0
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
21
15
15
51
0
0
4
4
22
15
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
0
0
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
80
80
20
0
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
38
27
27
91
0
0
7
7
39
27
34
100

hitrate: 1.000 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 3.40 0.21
Heidke skill score: 1.000 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 1.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.113
Kuipers skill score: 1.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 1.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.124
threat score:
1.000 0.000 1.000
threat score:
0.045 0.294 0.211
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.028 0.036 0.150
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.045 1.000 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.706 0.000
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00