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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
4
5
1
0
6
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
22
11
16
49
1
0
4
5
23
11
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
29
29
0
0
0
0
14
0
57
71
14
0
86
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
39
20
29
88
2
0
7
9
41
20
39
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 -- 0.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 4.45 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: -0.235 true Heidke skill score: 0.059
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: -0.333 true Kuipers skill score: 0.072
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.224 0.174
equitable threat score:
-0.105 0.000 -0.105
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.035 0.097
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.182
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.776 0.200
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00