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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
12
4
19
3
12
4
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
19
14
37
3
12
4
19
7
31
18
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16
63
21
100
16
63
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
34
25
66
5
21
7
34
13
55
32
100

hitrate: 0.211 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.19 1.06
Heidke skill score: -0.184 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.122
Kuipers skill score: -0.184 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.112
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.211
threat score:
0.000 0.388 0.121
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.052 -0.078
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.613 0.222
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.789
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.486 0.789
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00