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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
13
19
6
38
14
19
6
39

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
7
6
18
13
19
6
38
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
33
49
15
97
36
49
15
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
13
11
32
23
34
11
68
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.154 hitrate: 0.232
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.05 6.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.69 3.17
Heidke skill score: -0.269 Heidke skill score: -0.152
true Heidke skill score: -0.010 true Heidke skill score: -0.089
Kuipers skill score: -0.269 Kuipers skill score: -0.152
true Kuipers skill score: -0.014 true Kuipers skill score: -0.098
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.158
threat score:
0.000 0.189 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.025 0.005
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.047 -0.060
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.269 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.842
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.611 0.842
samples: 39 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 69.64 %coverage: 100.00