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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
20
5
39
14
20
5
39

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
6
7
17
14
20
5
39
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
36
51
13
100
36
51
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
11
13
30
25
36
9
70
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.128 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 7.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.65 3.25
Heidke skill score: -0.308 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.132
Kuipers skill score: -0.308 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.148
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.128
threat score:
0.000 0.162 0.109
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.065 -0.089
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.231 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.872
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.647 0.872
samples: 39 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 69.64 %coverage: 100.00