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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
18
6
39
15
18
6
39

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
8
6
17
15
18
6
39
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
46
15
100
38
46
15
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
14
11
30
27
32
11
70
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.154 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 6.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.65 3.25
Heidke skill score: -0.269 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.057
Kuipers skill score: -0.269 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.154
threat score:
0.000 0.229 0.133
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.004 -0.064
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.308 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.846
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.529 0.846
samples: 39 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 69.64 %coverage: 100.00