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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
18
6
38
14
18
6
38

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
8
6
18
14
18
6
38
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
47
16
100
37
47
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
14
11
32
25
32
11
68
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.158 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 6.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.69 3.17
Heidke skill score: -0.263 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.063
Kuipers skill score: -0.263 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.070
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.158
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.013 -0.060
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.308 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.842
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.556 0.842
samples: 38 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 67.86 %coverage: 100.00