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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
11
14
4
29
12
14
4
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
12
8
27
11
14
4
29
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
37
47
13
97
40
47
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
21
14
48
20
25
7
52
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.133 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.07 7.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.04 2.42
Heidke skill score: -0.300 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.013 true Heidke skill score: -0.074
Kuipers skill score: -0.300 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.018 true Kuipers skill score: -0.077
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.138
threat score:
0.000 0.293 0.108
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.032 0.005
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.019 -0.072
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.462 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.862
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.556 0.862
samples: 30 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 53.57 %coverage: 100.00