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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
10
5
23
8
10
5
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
16
7
33
8
10
5
23
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35
43
22
100
35
43
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
29
13
59
14
18
9
41
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.217 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.27 1.92
Heidke skill score: -0.174 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.174 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.021
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.217
threat score:
0.000 0.372 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.025 0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.615 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.783
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.515 0.783
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00