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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
9
10
4
23
10
10
4
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
8
16
8
32
9
10
4
23
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
38
42
17
96
42
42
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
14
29
14
57
16
18
7
41
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.208 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 0.00 5.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 1.23 1.92
Heidke skill score: -0.188 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.038 true Heidke skill score: 0.025
Kuipers skill score: -0.188 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.050 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.174
threat score:
0.056 0.381 0.129
equitable threat score:
0.061 0.000 0.009
equitable threat score:
0.038 0.042 -0.036
probability of detection:
0.100 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.056 0.615 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.826
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.826
samples: 24 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00