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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
5
5
0
10
1
2
5
8
8
9
5
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
15
22
7
44
1
2
5
8
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
9
0
18
23
23
0
45
5
9
23
36
36
41
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
0
7
27
39
13
79
2
4
9
14
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.518
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.11 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 1.69 0.67
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: 0.277
true Heidke skill score: 0.317 true Heidke skill score: 0.171
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: 0.277
true Kuipers skill score: 0.325 true Kuipers skill score: 0.157
threat score:
0.200 0.357 0.625
threat score:
0.100 0.458 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.064 0.092 0.515
equitable threat score:
0.038 0.057 0.247
probability of detection:
0.250 0.556 1.000
probability of detection:
0.111 0.846 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.375
samples: 22 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 39.29 %coverage: 100.00