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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
5
1
0
6
9
5
9
23
16
6
9
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
20
9
2
31
9
5
9
23
31
14
11
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
16
3
0
19
29
16
29
74
52
19
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
36
16
4
55
16
9
16
41
55
25
20
100

hitrate: 0.387 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 1.00 2.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.21 2.09
Heidke skill score: 0.081 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.141 true Heidke skill score: 0.155
Kuipers skill score: 0.081 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.165 true Kuipers skill score: 0.200
threat score:
0.125 0.091 0.391
threat score:
0.065 0.250 0.360
equitable threat score:
0.065 -0.016 0.142
equitable threat score:
0.030 0.044 0.219
probability of detection:
0.125 0.167 1.000
probability of detection:
0.065 0.643 0.818
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.833 0.609
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.710 0.609
samples: 31 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 55.36 %coverage: 100.00