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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
2
3
9
14
5
3
9
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
11
2
42
2
3
9
14
31
14
11
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
0
0
18
12
18
53
82
29
18
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
52
20
4
75
4
5
16
25
55
25
20
100

hitrate: 0.529 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 1.27
Heidke skill score: 0.294 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.117 true Heidke skill score: 0.158
Kuipers skill score: 0.294 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.103 true Kuipers skill score: 0.203
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.643
threat score:
0.000 0.244 0.562
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.097 0.241
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.014 0.472
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.818
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.357
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.738 0.357
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00