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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
9
1
6
16
11
2
6
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
21
13
5
39
9
1
6
16
31
14
11
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
5
5
0
11
47
5
32
84
58
11
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
38
23
9
70
16
2
11
29
55
25
20
100

hitrate: 0.421 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 1.00 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.79 1.45
Heidke skill score: 0.132 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.164 true Heidke skill score: 0.154
Kuipers skill score: 0.132 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.205 true Kuipers skill score: 0.198
threat score:
0.091 0.333 0.375
threat score:
0.032 0.325 0.286
equitable threat score:
0.040 0.283 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.015 0.107 0.160
probability of detection:
0.091 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.032 0.929 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.625
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00