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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
1
0
4
13
4
5
22
16
5
5
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
10
6
34
13
4
5
22
31
14
11
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
4
0
15
50
15
19
85
62
19
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
18
11
61
23
7
9
39
55
25
20
100

hitrate: 0.231 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.80 4.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.43 2.00
Heidke skill score: -0.154 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: 0.050
Kuipers skill score: -0.154 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.070 true Kuipers skill score: 0.066
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.227
threat score:
0.000 0.263 0.179
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.032 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.051 0.029
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.455
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.773
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.706 0.773
samples: 26 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 46.43 %coverage: 100.00