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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
11
3
6
20
12
3
6
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
11
5
36
11
3
6
20
31
14
11
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
5
52
14
29
95
57
14
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
20
9
64
20
5
11
36
55
25
20
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 3.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.57 1.82
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.009 true Heidke skill score: 0.095
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.012 true Kuipers skill score: 0.123
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.300
threat score:
0.000 0.282 0.240
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.037 0.020
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.067 0.098
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.694 0.700
samples: 21 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00