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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
10
3
7
20
12
3
7
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
11
4
36
10
3
7
20
31
14
11
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
9
45
14
32
91
55
14
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
20
7
64
18
5
13
36
55
25
20
100

hitrate: 0.318 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.67 2.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.57 1.82
Heidke skill score: -0.023 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.024 true Heidke skill score: 0.118
Kuipers skill score: -0.023 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.028 true Kuipers skill score: 0.153
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.350
threat score:
0.000 0.282 0.292
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.058 0.047
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.067 0.153
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.636
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.650
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.694 0.650
samples: 22 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 39.29 %coverage: 100.00