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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
4
1
0
5
3
4
10
17
9
5
10
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
28
7
2
37
3
4
10
17
33
11
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
17
4
0
21
13
17
42
71
38
21
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
50
13
4
66
5
7
18
30
59
20
21
100

hitrate: 0.542 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 1.00 1.70
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 3.36 1.42
Heidke skill score: 0.313 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.273 true Heidke skill score: 0.157
Kuipers skill score: 0.313 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.268 true Kuipers skill score: 0.217
threat score:
0.222 0.111 0.588
threat score:
0.061 0.171 0.526
equitable threat score:
0.152 -0.005 0.294
equitable threat score:
0.026 -0.008 0.414
probability of detection:
0.222 0.200 1.000
probability of detection:
0.061 0.636 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 0.412
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.811 0.412
samples: 24 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00