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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
4
0
0
4
6
5
9
20
11
5
9
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
26
6
3
35
6
5
9
20
33
11
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
16
0
0
16
24
20
36
80
44
20
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
46
11
5
63
11
9
16
36
59
20
21
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 0.80 2.22
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.18 1.67
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.094 true Heidke skill score: 0.096
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.098 true Kuipers skill score: 0.134
threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.450
threat score:
0.030 0.150 0.391
equitable threat score:
0.053 -0.098 0.141
equitable threat score:
0.013 -0.026 0.252
probability of detection:
0.091 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.030 0.545 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.550
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.829 0.550
samples: 25 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 44.64 %coverage: 100.00