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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
7
6
10
23
10
6
10
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
25
5
2
32
7
6
10
23
33
11
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
8
0
0
8
27
23
38
88
38
23
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
45
9
4
57
13
11
18
41
59
20
21
100

hitrate: 0.423 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 0.33 2.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.91 1.92
Heidke skill score: 0.135 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.080 true Heidke skill score: 0.095
Kuipers skill score: 0.135 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.077 true Kuipers skill score: 0.132
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.435
threat score:
0.030 0.132 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.064 -0.061 0.082
equitable threat score:
0.013 -0.041 0.253
probability of detection:
0.100 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.030 0.455 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.565
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.844 0.565
samples: 26 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 46.43 %coverage: 100.00