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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
10
5
7
22
10
6
8
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
6
5
34
10
5
7
22
33
11
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
8
42
21
29
92
42
25
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
41
11
9
61
18
9
13
39
59
20
21
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.232
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 2.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.09 1.83
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.152
true Heidke skill score: 0.010 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.152
true Kuipers skill score: 0.011 true Kuipers skill score: 0.051
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.304
threat score:
0.000 0.154 0.259
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.077 -0.021
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.021 0.103
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 0.875
probability of detection:
0.000 0.545 0.583
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.682
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.824 0.682
samples: 24 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00