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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
2
9
5
8
22
10
6
9
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
23
6
4
33
9
5
8
22
33
11
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
0
4
4
8
36
20
32
88
40
24
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
41
11
7
59
16
9
14
39
59
20
21
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 0.33 2.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.00 1.83
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.074 true Heidke skill score: 0.073
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.074 true Kuipers skill score: 0.101
threat score:
0.100 0.143 0.348
threat score:
0.030 0.158 0.308
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.080 0.005
equitable threat score:
0.013 -0.015 0.154
probability of detection:
0.100 0.167 0.889
probability of detection:
0.030 0.545 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.636
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.818 0.636
samples: 25 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 44.64 %coverage: 100.00