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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
8
5
8
21
9
5
8
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
24
6
4
34
8
5
8
21
33
11
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
36
23
36
95
41
23
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
43
11
7
61
14
9
14
38
59
20
21
100

hitrate: 0.409 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 0.00 2.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.09 1.75
Heidke skill score: 0.114 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.068 true Heidke skill score: 0.073
Kuipers skill score: 0.114 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.067 true Kuipers skill score: 0.102
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.381
threat score:
0.030 0.154 0.320
equitable threat score:
0.069 0.000 0.027
equitable threat score:
0.013 -0.021 0.171
probability of detection:
0.111 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.030 0.545 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.619
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.824 0.619
samples: 22 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 39.29 %coverage: 100.00