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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
9
6
9
24
12
6
9
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
5
3
32
9
6
9
24
33
11
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
0
0
11
33
22
33
89
44
22
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
43
9
5
57
16
11
16
43
59
20
21
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.91 2.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: 0.018 true Heidke skill score: 0.058
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: 0.019 true Kuipers skill score: 0.081
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.000 0.132 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.080 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.041 0.176
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.455 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.844 0.625
samples: 27 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 48.21 %coverage: 100.00