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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
2
0
4
7
11
1
5
8
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
16
12
44
0
4
7
11
17
20
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
0
7
0
7
7
14
0
29
50
79
7
36
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
29
29
21
79
0
7
13
20
30
36
34
100

hitrate: 0.643 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.40 1.37
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.20 0.58
Heidke skill score: 0.464 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.278 true Heidke skill score: 0.117
Kuipers skill score: 0.464 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.255 true Kuipers skill score: 0.114
threat score:
1.000 0.167 0.583
threat score:
0.059 0.333 0.304
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.054 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.042 0.009 0.170
probability of detection:
1.000 0.200 0.875
probability of detection:
0.059 0.800 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.636 0.364
samples: 14 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00