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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
10
1
5
5
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
15
14
45
0
5
5
10
17
20
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
0
0
9
0
0
0
0
0
45
45
91
9
45
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
29
27
25
80
0
9
9
18
30
36
34
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.25 0.53
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.214 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.214 true Kuipers skill score: 0.033
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.059 0.300 0.208
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.042 -0.032 0.078
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.750 0.263
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.500
samples: 11 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 19.64 %coverage: 100.00