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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
2
4
6
1
3
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
18
15
49
0
2
4
6
17
20
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
0
13
0
13
0
25
50
75
13
38
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
29
32
27
88
0
4
7
11
30
36
34
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.33 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.45 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.556 true Heidke skill score: 0.087
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.526 true Kuipers skill score: 0.085
threat score:
1.000 0.333 0.667
threat score:
0.059 0.353 0.190
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.238 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.042 0.015 0.104
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.900 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.633 0.333
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00