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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
2
5
7
1
3
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
18
14
48
0
2
5
7
17
20
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
0
11
0
11
0
22
56
78
11
33
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
29
32
25
86
0
4
9
13
30
36
34
100

hitrate: 0.778 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.33 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.40 0.37
Heidke skill score: 0.667 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.571 true Heidke skill score: 0.115
Kuipers skill score: 0.667 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.522 true Kuipers skill score: 0.112
threat score:
1.000 0.333 0.714
threat score:
0.059 0.360 0.238
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.250 0.357
equitable threat score:
0.042 0.026 0.141
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.900 0.263
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.625 0.286
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00