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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
7
1
3
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
16
17
15
48
0
3
4
7
17
20
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
0
13
0
0
0
0
0
38
50
88
13
38
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
29
30
27
86
0
5
7
13
30
36
34
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.40 0.37
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.314 true Heidke skill score: 0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.289 true Kuipers skill score: 0.058
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.059 0.333 0.182
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.042 -0.004 0.083
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.850 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.646 0.429
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00