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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
6
11
1
4
6
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
15
16
45
1
4
6
11
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
36
55
100
9
36
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
27
29
80
2
7
11
20
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.37 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.039
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.545
threat score:
0.000 0.306 0.222
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.008 0.074
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.789 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.455
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.455
samples: 11 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 19.64 %coverage: 100.00