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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
2
2
1
3
7
11
1
4
9
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
14
15
15
44
1
3
7
11
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
0
7
0
0
14
14
7
21
50
79
7
29
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
25
27
27
79
2
5
13
20
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.50 1.22
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.32 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: -0.114 true Heidke skill score: 0.068
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: -0.102 true Kuipers skill score: 0.067
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.538
threat score:
0.000 0.312 0.269
equitable threat score:
-0.037 -0.105 -0.012
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.002 0.124
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.778
probability of detection:
0.000 0.789 0.318
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.659 0.364
samples: 14 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00