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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
3
5
9
1
4
5
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
14
15
17
46
1
3
5
9
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
0
10
0
0
0
0
10
30
50
90
10
40
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
25
27
30
82
2
5
9
16
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.42 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.074 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.069 true Kuipers skill score: 0.016
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.556
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.192
equitable threat score:
-0.053 0.000 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.018 0.065
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.789 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.674 0.444
samples: 10 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 17.86 %coverage: 100.00